Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”

نویسندگان

چکیده

Elicitation mechanisms typically presume only money enters utility functions. However, nonmonetary objectives are confounders. In particular, psychologists argue people favor bets where ability is involved over equivalent random bets—a preference for control. Our new elicitation method mitigates control and determines that under the widely used matching probabilities method, subjects report beliefs 18 percent higher than their true to increase Nonmonetary account 68 of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. We also find a desire bet on doing well; betting badly perceived negative. (JEL C91, D11, D82, D83, D91)

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1945-7669', '1945-7685']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20200017